Predicting the price direction of a volatile asset class like cryptocurrencies is a difficult task.
If you don’t know how to read tea leaves or lack a crystal ball, then one of the next best things is to analyze options activity, especially when coupled with volatility indicators, as it gives insights into where large and institutional investors are placing their bets.
Based on data from crypto market research firm Skew, the current outlook based on various Bitcoin (BTC) option maturity dates paints a fairly bleak picture for those calling for new all-time highs by the end of the year.
The available contract data suggests that the probability of BTC being above $20,000 by December is roughly 1%.
However, that number increases slightly to 5% for the March 2020 maturity date.
Bitcoin is currently down 1.9% on the day to $7,930 as the largest digital currency continues to bounce around the $8,000 level. Various traders and analysts have offered differing opinions about Bitcoin’s next move, with some suggesting a drop to $6,000 may be in the cards.
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